Implications of the 'Bread and Peace' Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election

Hibbs, Douglas

Abstract

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Implications of the 'Bread and Peace' Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election

Douglas A. Hibbs Jr.

Göteborg University - Center for Public Sector Research (CEFOS)

June 7, 2008

Public Choice, Vol. 137, pp. 1-10, 2008

Abstract:
Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 14

Keywords: 2008 US presidential election, economic voting, Iraq war

JEL Classification: H19

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Date posted: November 16, 2008 ; Last revised: October 13, 2010

Suggested Citation

Hibbs, Douglas A., Implications of the 'Bread and Peace' Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election (June 7, 2008). Public Choice, Vol. 137, pp. 1-10, 2008. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1301574

Contact Information

Douglas A. Hibbs Jr. (Contact Author)

Göteborg University - Center for Public Sector Research (CEFOS) ( email )

Sweden

HOME PAGE: http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/