Implications of the 'Bread and Peace' Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election
Douglas A. Hibbs Jr.
Göteborg University - Center for Public Sector Research (CEFOS)
June 7, 2008
Public Choice, Vol. 137, pp. 1-10, 2008
Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 14
Keywords: 2008 US presidential election, economic voting, Iraq war
JEL Classification: H19Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: November 16, 2008 ; Last revised: October 13, 2010
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