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Business Cycles in the Euro AreaDomenico GiannoneUniversité Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Michele LenzaEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Lucrezia ReichlinLondon Business School; Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECARES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Central Bank (ECB) December 2008 NBER Working Paper No. w14529 Abstract: This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 33 working papers seriesDate posted: December 9, 2008Suggested CitationContact Information
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