Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1313585
 
 

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Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh


Kayenat


North South University - Department of Economics

Mohammad Muaz Jalil


University of British Columbia (UBC); University of Dhaka - Institute of Business Administration; North South University - Department of Economics

December 9, 2008


Abstract:     
Chemical Fertilizer shortage and misallocation has been a perennial problem that has fraught the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand can be a significant boon that can greatly emend the current scenario in regards to fertilizer shortage. Unfortunately government at present has no such forecasting model to tackle such issue. The paper tries to develop a forecasting model for the seasonal and annual demand of three major fertilizers, urea TSP and MP, for six years based on the forecast of production area under rice and vegetable cultivation. The choice of commodity lies in the fact that together rice and vegetable account for 78% of the cultivable area in Bangladesh.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 18

Keywords: Bangladesh, Agriculture, Chemical Fertilizer Demand, ARIMA, Forecasting, Rice, Vegetable, Production

JEL Classification: Q18

working papers series


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Date posted: December 10, 2008 ; Last revised: December 14, 2008

Suggested Citation

Kayenat and Jalil, Mohammad Muaz, Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh (December 9, 2008). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1313585 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1313585

Contact Information

Kayenat Kabir
North South University - Department of Economics ( email )
NSU Campus, Bashundhara
Bangladesh, Dhaka 1213
India
Mohammad Muaz Jalil (Contact Author)
University of British Columbia (UBC) ( email )
997-1873 East Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1
Canada
University of Dhaka - Institute of Business Administration ( email )
1000
Bangladesh
North South University - Department of Economics
Dhaka, Dhaka 1213
Bangladesh
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