Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1313585
 
 

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Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh


Kayenat


North South University - Department of Economics

Mohammad Muaz Jalil


Swisscontact; University of Cambridge - Centre for Development Studies

December 9, 2008


Abstract:     
Chemical Fertilizer shortage and misallocation has been a perennial problem that has fraught the agricultural sector of Bangladesh. Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand can be a significant boon that can greatly emend the current scenario in regards to fertilizer shortage. Unfortunately government at present has no such forecasting model to tackle such issue. The paper tries to develop a forecasting model for the seasonal and annual demand of three major fertilizers, urea TSP and MP, for six years based on the forecast of production area under rice and vegetable cultivation. The choice of commodity lies in the fact that together rice and vegetable account for 78% of the cultivable area in Bangladesh.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 18

Keywords: Bangladesh, Agriculture, Chemical Fertilizer Demand, ARIMA, Forecasting, Rice, Vegetable, Production

JEL Classification: Q18


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Date posted: December 10, 2008 ; Last revised: December 14, 2008

Suggested Citation

Kayenat and Jalil, Mohammad Muaz, Forecasting Demand for Urea TSP and MP Fertilizer for Vegetable and Rice Production in Bangladesh (December 9, 2008). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1313585 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1313585

Contact Information

Kayenat Kabir
North South University - Department of Economics ( email )
NSU Campus, Bashundhara
Bangladesh, Dhaka 1213
India
Mohammad Muaz Jalil (Contact Author)
Swisscontact ( email )
House 19
Road 11
Dhaka, Baridhara 1212
Bangladesh
University of Cambridge - Centre for Development Studies ( email )
7 West Road
2nd floor, Alison Richard Building
Cambridge, CB3 9DT
United Kingdom
Feedback to SSRN


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