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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US EconomyIoan CarabenciovInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) Igor ErmolaevBank of Russia Charles FreedmanGovernment of Canada - Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Michel JuillardCEPREMAP; University of Paris Ondra KamenikInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) Dmitry KorshunovBank of Russia Douglas LaxtonInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department December 2008 IMF Working Paper No. 08/278 Abstract: This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 56 working papers seriesDate posted: December 18, 2008Suggested CitationContact Information
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