Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1316748
 
 

References (21)



 
 

Citations (6)



 


 



A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices


Ioan Carabenciov


International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Igor Ermolaev


Bank of Russia

Charles Freedman


Government of Canada - Bank of Canada; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Michel Juillard


CEPREMAP; University of Paris

Ondra Kamenik


International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Dmitry Korshunov


Bank of Russia

Douglas Laxton


International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Jared Laxton


International Monetary Fund (IMF)

December 2008

IMF Working Paper No. 08/280

Abstract:     
This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 76

Keywords: Working Paper

working papers series


Download This Paper

Date posted: December 18, 2008  

Suggested Citation

Carabenciov, Ioan and Ermolaev, Igor and Freedman, Charles and Juillard, Michel and Kamenik, Ondra and Korshunov, Dmitry and Laxton, Douglas and Laxton, Jared, A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices (December 2008). IMF Working Papers, Vol. , pp. 1-74, 2008. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1316748

Contact Information

Ioan Carabenciov
International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States
Igor Ermolaev
Bank of Russia
12 Neglinnaya Street
Moscow, 107016
Russia
Charles Freedman
Government of Canada - Bank of Canada ( email )
234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ontario K1A 0G9
Canada
613 782-8045 (Phone)
613 782-7003 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Michel Juillard
CEPREMAP ( email )
Ecole Normale Superieure
48 boulevard Jourdan
75014 Paris
France
University of Paris ( email )
Paris
France
Ondra Kamenik (Contact Author)
International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States
Dmitry Korshunov
Bank of Russia
12 Neglinnaya Street
Moscow, 107016
Russia
Douglas Laxton
International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )
700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States
Jared Laxton
International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States
Feedback to SSRN


Paper statistics
Abstract Views: 342
Downloads: 89
Download Rank: 169,168
References:  21
Citations:  6

© 2014 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  FAQ   Terms of Use   Privacy Policy   Copyright   Contact Us
This page was processed by apollo1 in 0.375 seconds