Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1317108
 
 

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Estimating Risk-Adjusted Costs of Financial Distress


Heitor Almeida


University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Thomas Philippon


New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)


Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 20, Issue 4, pp. 105-109, Fall 2008

Abstract:     
The search for the optimal, or val ue-maximizing, capital structure involves weighing the expected benefits of higher leverage against the expected "costs of financial distress." These costs include not only the direct costs of reorganization, but less quantifiable effects of financial trouble such as damage to the firms reputation, the loss of key employees and customers, and the loss of value from forgone investment opportunities.

This article proposes a new method for valuing expected financial distress costs. While researchers have provided estimates of the costs associated with financial distress when it takes place, whether or when these costs will be incurred is, of course, unknown at the time the financing decision. As a result, the "correct" discount rate for valuing expected distress costs is difficult to derive. Instead of adjusting the discount rate to reflect historical default rate probabilities, the authors' method uses "risk-neutral" probabilities of encountering distress that allow for discounting at the risk-free rate. The risk-neutral probabilities of default are derived by incorporating the systematic risk premia implicit in corporate bond yield spreads.

This method results in a significant increase in estimates of financial distress costs. In a simple example presented by the authors, distress costs estimated at about 1.6% of firm value using the conventional method turn out to run about 5% after adjusting for the increased systematic risk associated with financial distress.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 7

Accepted Paper Series


Date posted: December 18, 2008  

Suggested Citation

Almeida, Heitor and Philippon, Thomas, Estimating Risk-Adjusted Costs of Financial Distress. Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Vol. 20, Issue 4, pp. 105-109, Fall 2008. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1317108 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6622.2008.00208.x

Contact Information

Heitor Almeida (Contact Author)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )
515 East Gregory Drive
4037 BIF
Champaign, IL 61820
United States
217-3332704 (Phone)
HOME PAGE: http://www.business.illinois.edu/FacultyProfile/faculty_profile.aspx?ID=11357
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Thomas Philippon
New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )
Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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