Post Positivist Probability

Abstract:     
Positivist philosophy provided the foundation for all social sciences as they were developed in the twentieth century. Now that positivism has been abandoned by philosophers, it is essential to replace methodology founded on positivist precepts. We show that the foundations of probability (both Bayesian and Frequentist) are wedded to positivist assumptions, which have been shown not to be workable. We suggest an alternative non-positivist foundation for probability theory, which avoids many of the problems faced by the current methodologies.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 14

Keywords: probability, foundations, Bayesian, Frequentist, positivism

JEL Classification: C19

working papers series