Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract:     
The paper seeks to quantitatively assess the impact of exchange rate volatility on non oil export flows in Nigeria. Theoretically, volatility-trade link is ambiguous, although a strand of studies reported inverse link between export flow and volatility. The paper employed fundamental analysis where the flow of non oil exports from the Nigerian economy is assumed to be predicated on fundamental variables: the naira exchange rate volatility, the US dollar volatility, Nigeria's terms of trade (TOT) and index of openness (OPN). Empirical results showed presence of unit root at level, however, the null hypothesis of nonstationarity was rejected at first difference. Cointegration results revealed that a stable long run equilibrium relationship exists between non oil exports and the fundamental variables. Using quarterly observations for twenty years, vector cointegration estimate revealed that the naira exchange rate volatility decreased non oil exports by 3.65% while the same estimate for the US dollar volatility increased export of non oil in Nigeria by 5.2% in the year 2003. The paper recommends measures that would promote greater openness of the economy and exchange rate stability in the economy.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 27

Keywords: exchange rate volatility, non oil exports, terms of trade, index of openness, unit

JEL Classification: F10, F14

working papers series