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Momentum in Stock Market Returns, Risk Premia on Foreign Currencies and International Financial Integration
Thomas Nitschka Swiss National Bank - Financial Stability March 9, 2009 Abstract: Momentum in developed countries' stock market index returns can be exploited to form portfolios of excess returns on foreign currencies as relatively high past foreign stock market returns signal a foreign currency appreciation. Two risk factors extracted from the stock index momentum based currency portfolio returns explain more than 80 percent of their cross-sectional variation. In contrast to currency risk factors constructed from forward discount sorted currency portfolios, these risk factors are not related to business cycle or liquidity risk. But high currency risk premia are associated with relatively deep financial integration and a high level of risk sharing.
Keywords: Currency returns, financial integration, momentum, risk premia, UIP JEL Classifications: F31, F37, G15 Working Paper SeriesDate posted: March 11, 2009 ; Last revised: March 11, 2009Suggested CitationContact Information
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