Twisted Roots: Cointegrated Explanations of Transformation within the Federal Judicial Appointment Process
Marcus E. Hendershot
Oklahoma State University
November 21, 2009
CELS 2009 4th Annual Conference on Empirical Legal Studies Paper
This analysis presents a macro-level time series analysis of transformation within the judicial appointment process that evaluates the political party, judicial agenda, and interest group accounts of change. The presence of cointegration between measures related to these three hypotheses requires a more complex vector error correction estimation strategy that can capture endogenous relationships within independent variables and at the same time explain the short and long term dynamics of selection and confirmation. The results suggest that the judicial agenda and party realignment offer the best explanations of selection variance and that presidential partisan unity and interest group mobilization are the most robust predictors of confirmation.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 45
Keywords: judges, appointments, party realignment, judicial agenda, interest groups
Date posted: March 12, 2009 ; Last revised: November 9, 2009
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