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Do Forecasters Inform or Reassure? Evaluation of the German Real-Time DataKonstantin A. KholodilinGerman Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) Boriss SiliverstovsGerman Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics February 2, 2009 KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, KOF Working Paper No. 215 DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 858 Abstract: The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 29 Keywords: Quality of statistical data, real-time data, signal-to-noise ratio, forecasts, revisions JEL Classification: C53, C89 working papers seriesDate posted: March 18, 2009 ; Last revised: July 8, 2009Suggested CitationContact Information
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