Unsure What the Future Will Bring? You May Overindulge: Uncertainty Increases the Appeal of Wants over Shoulds

Abstract:     
This paper examines the effect of uncertainty about the future on whether individuals select want options (e.g., junk foods, lowbrow films) or should options (e.g., healthy foods, highbrow films). As predicted by the dual systems theory of want/should conflict, uncertainty about what the future may bring increases individuals’ tendency to favor want options over should options, and these results hold even when individuals are able to make choices contingent upon the outcomes of uncertain events. These results are strongest in situations where uncertainty pertains to similar outcomes, suggesting that the effects of uncertainty are enhanced when a decision maker finds it more difficult to distinguish between the possible contingencies she faces. Overall, this work suggests that reducing uncertainty in a decision maker’s environment may have a “halo effect”, leading to less impulsive choices. Implications for theories of want/should conflict, managers, policy makers, and individuals are discussed.

Keywords: want/should conflict, self-control, uncertainty, disjunction effect

Working Paper Series