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Mortality Regimes and Pricing

Samuel H. Cox
University of Manitoba - Asper School of Business

Yijia Lin
University of Nebraska at Lincoln - Department of Finance

Andreas Milidonis
University of Cyprus - Department of Public & Business Administration; Manchester Business School - Accounting & Finance


November 09, 2009


Abstract:     
Mortality dynamics are characterized by changes in mortality regimes. This paper describes a Markov regime switching model which incorporates mortality state switches into mortality dynamics. Using the 1901-2005 US population mortality data, we illustrate that regime switching models perform better than well-known models in the literature. Furthermore, we extend the Lee-Carter (1992) model in such a way that the error term of the time-series common factor has distinct mortality regimes with different means and volatilities. Finally, we show how to price mortality securities with this model.

Keywords: Lee-Cater model, regime switching mortality model, mortality-linked securities

JEL Classifications: C02, C13, G22, G23

Working Paper Series

Date posted: November 09, 2009 ; Last revised: November 09, 2009

Suggested Citation

Cox, Samuel H., Lin, Yijia and Milidonis, Andreas , Mortality Regimes and Pricing (November 09, 2009). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1418514


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Contact Information

Andreas Milidonis (Contact Author)
University of Cyprus - Department of Public & Business Administration ( email )
75 Kallipoleos Street, P.O. Box 20537
Nicosia CY-1678 Cyprus
+357 22 892 492 (Phone)
HOME PAGE: http://www2.ucy.ac.cy/~amilidon/
Manchester Business School - Accounting & Finance ( email )
University of Manchester
Manchester United Kingdom
Samuel H. Cox
University of Manitoba - Asper School of Business ( email )
Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 5V4 Canada
Yijia Lin
University of Nebraska at Lincoln - Department of Finance ( email )
Lincoln, NE 68588-0490
United States
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