The Timeliness of the Bond Market Reaction to Bad News Earnings Surprises

Abstract:     
The purpose of this study is to investigate how bondholders’ limited upside potential impacts the timeliness of the bond market reaction to bad news earnings surprises. We find that bond prices anticipate the majority of the information in bad news earnings surprises, but none of the information in good news earnings surprises, well before the earnings announcements. This contrasts sharply with stock prices, which anticipate only a relatively modest amount of both good and bad news prior to the announcements. We also find that bond prices, but not stock prices, anticipate bad news surprises about financial statement components that are commonly used in debt covenants. These findings are consistent with bond prices impounding bad news more quickly than good news, and with the bond market interpreting bad news more negatively and expending more resources to discover bad news than the stock market. These findings contribute to the literature by improving our understanding of the role of accounting information in the bond market, and how it systematically differs from its role in the stock market.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 59

Keywords: corporate bond market, anticipation of bad news, bond prices, information content, earnings surprise

JEL Classification: M43, G14, G15

working papers series