Demography and Security: Security Implications of Global Population Changes, 2007-2050

Abstract:     
This paper discusses six global demographic trends and their import for global security: (1) The demographic and economic weight of the advanced economies relative to the rest of the world will undergo a sharp and rapid decline; (2) a concentration of large, youthful populations will be on the move in an ‘arc of instability’ reaching from Southern Africa through the Middle East and south and southeast Asia; (3) there will be rapid aging of European, North American, and East Asian societies; (4) there will be increased pressures for immigration from Third World to First World countries; (5) there will be unprecedentedly rapid urbanization, especially in China and Africa; and (6) a concentration of adverse environmental impacts from climate change in the poorest and most populous countries.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 37

Keywords: Population, Security, Globalization, Economic Growth, Youth, Conflict, Aging, Urbanization, Migration

JEL Classification: O1

working papers series