Candidate Choice in the 2008 Election: The Primary Battle
Posted: 13 Aug 2009
Date Written: 2009
Abstract
Was the Iraq War a critical issue that helped Obama and McCain win the vote in nominating contests of their respective parties? Both major-party standard bearers had made an issue of the Iraq War, albeit in sharply contrasting ways. The data for our analysis largely come from exit polls of actual voters in primaries (and some caucuses) of both parties during the 2008 nomination cycle. Our analysis controls for the effects of other issues as well as familiar demographics (race, age, and gender for Democrats), ideological fault lines (for Republicans), home state advantage, and the possibility of a momentum dynamic in sequential contests like primary elections. We find that the Iraq War, indeed, was a factor that helped Obama win the Democratic nomination and, to an even greater degree, helped McCain win the Republican one. In both instances, the type of issue-voting evident in the primary battle supports the 'valence' model rather than the 'position' model of politics. Concern with the Iraq War drove primary voters into the arms of Obama or McCain, respectively, not agreement with the candidates’ positions on the war.
Keywords: Primary elections, foreign policy and voting, 2008 presidential elections
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