Issues for the Next Generation of Base Rate Research

Abstract:     
Commentators agree that simple conclusions about a general base rate fallacy are not appropriate. It is more constructive to identify conditions under which base rates are differently weighted. Commentators also agree that improving the ecological validity of the research is desirable, although this is less important to those interested exclusively in psychological processes. The philosophers and ecologists among the commentators offer a kinder perspective on base rate reasoning than the psychologists. My own perspective is that the interesting questions are best answered through empirical studies that use real-world performance standards.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 13

Keywords: Base rate, ecology, fallacy

Accepted Paper Series