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A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization

Wei Lee Woon
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST)

Andreas Henschel
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST)

Stuart Madnick
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management


September 24, 2009

MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4757-09

Abstract:     
This paper presents a novel framework for supporting the development of well-informed research policies and plans. The proposed methodology is based on the use of bibliometrics; i.e., analysis is conducted using information regarding trends and patterns of publication. Information thus obtained is analyzed to predict probable future developments in the technological fields being studied. While using bibliometric techniques to study science and technology is not a new idea, the proposed approach extends previous studies in a number of important ways. Firstly, instead of being purely exploratory, the focus of our research has been on developing techniques for detecting technologies that are in the early growth phase, characterized by a rapid increase in the number of relevant publications. Secondly, to increase the reliability of the forecasting effort, we propose the use of automatically generated keyword taxonomies, allowing the growth potentials of subordinate technologies to aggregated into the overall potential of larger technology categories. As a demonstration, a proof-of-concept implementation of each component of the framework is presented, and is used to study the domain of renewable energy technologies. Results from this analysis are presented and discussed.

Working Paper Series

Date posted: September 25, 2009 ; Last revised: September 25, 2009

Suggested Citation

Woon, Wei Lee, Henschel, Andreas and Madnick, Stuart E., A Framework for Technology Forecasting and Visualization (September 24, 2009). MIT Sloan Research Paper No. 4757-09. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1478054


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Contact Information

Wei Lee Woon (Contact Author)
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST) ( email )
MASDAR
PO Box 54115
Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates
Andreas Henschel
Masdar Institute of Science and Technology (MIST) ( email )
MASDAR
PO Box 54115
Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates
Stuart E. Madnick
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )
E53-321
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
617-253-6671 (Phone)
617-253-3321 (Fax)
Feedback to SSRN (Beta)


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