Withdrawal Rate Strategies for Retirement Portfolios: Preventive Reductions and Risk Management

Abstract:     
This paper builds on the work of Stout and Mitchell (2006), Stout (2008), and Blanchett and Frank (2009) by creating a preventive approach to withdrawal management. Proactive strategies, which reduce the withdrawal rate before there are insufficient funds, are shown to significantly reduce the probability of ruin (shortfall) while maintaining the average withdrawal rate. The paper also explores the micro effects of strategy changes by dividing the simulation iterations into groups which have been positively or negatively affected by any particular change, and demonstrates that conventional reporting of the effectiveness of withdrawal rate management techniques can be improved by examining additional moments of the distribution. Data covers 1926-2008 and the mortality table is extended to 108 years.

Keywords: withdrawal rate, retirement, risk management

JEL Classifications: G11, C15, I12, J26

Working Paper Series