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http://ssrn.com/abstract=1492525
 
 

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Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal


Antonio Afonso


University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

Peter Claeys


European University Institute - Economics Department (ECO); University of Barcelona - Faculty of Economic Science and Business Studies

Ricardo M. Sousa


University of Minho; Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE); London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group; London School of Economics

October 22, 2009

ISEG-UTL Department of Economics Working Paper No. 41/2009/DE/UECE

Abstract:     
We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978-2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal rules prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 29

Keywords: fiscal regimes, Markov Switching, Portugal

JEL Classification: E62, E65, H11, H62

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Date posted: October 25, 2009  

Suggested Citation

Afonso, Antonio and Claeys, Peter and Sousa, Ricardo M., Fiscal Regime Shifts in Portugal (October 22, 2009). ISEG-UTL Department of Economics Working Paper No. 41/2009/DE/UECE. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1492525 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1492525

Contact Information

Antonio Afonso (Contact Author)
University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )
R. Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisbon, 1248-078
Portugal
+351 21 392 5985 (Phone)
+351 21 396 6407 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/~aafonso/AAWeb.html
UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)
Rua Miguel Lupi 20
Lisbon, 1249-078
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.iseg.utl.pt/~uece/
Peter Claeys
European University Institute - Economics Department (ECO) ( email )
Villa San Paolo
Via della Piazzuola 43
50133 Florence
Italy
University of Barcelona - Faculty of Economic Science and Business Studies ( email )
Avinguda Diagonal 690
Barcelona, Catalunya 08034
Spain
Ricardo Magalhaes Sousa
University of Minho ( email )
4710-057 Braga
Portugal
+351253604584 (Phone)
+351253676375 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/rjsousa
Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) ( email )
Campus de Gualtar
Braga, 4710-057
Portugal
+351253604584 (Phone)
+351253676375 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/rjsousa
London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Financial Markets Group ( email )
Houghton Street
London WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom
London School of Economics ( email )
Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom
HOME PAGE: http://econ.lse.ac.uk
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