Informed Trading, Earnings Surprises, and Stock Returns
University of Cincinnati - Department of Finance - Real Estate
Erasmus University - Rotterdam School of Management
March 14, 2012
2010 CRSP Forum
Entries and exits are often triggered by substantive private information, and we propose PC_NII, the percentage change in the number of a stock’s institutional investors, as a measure of informed trading. Over the 1982 to 2010 period, the top PC_NII decile outperforms the bottom PC_NII decile by 10% and 14% per annum for equal- and value-weighted portfolios, respectively. PC_NII subsumes the information content of standard institutional trading or herding measures in the forecast of stock returns, and the predictive power of PC_NII reflects its information content of future earnings surprises. The relationship between PC_NII and short-run future stock returns has attenuated noticeably for the equal-weighted portfolio since the Securities and Exchange Commission introduced Regulation Fair Disclosure in October 2000; however, we do not observe such a change for the value-weighted portfolio.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 72
JEL Classification: G12, G20working papers series
Date posted: November 8, 2009 ; Last revised: March 15, 2012
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