Predicting Recoveries and the Importance of Using Enough Information
VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics
Wouter J. den Haan
University of Amsterdam; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Tinbergen Institute
CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7508
Several papers that make forecasts about the long-term impact of the current financial crisis rely on models in which there is only one type of financial crisis. These models tend to predict that the current crisis will have long lasting negative effects on economic growth. This paper points out the deficiency in this approach by analyzing the ability of "one-type-shock" models to correctly forecast the recovery from past economic downturns. It is shown that these models often overestimate the long-run impact of recessions and that slightly richer models that allow the effects of recessions to be both persistent and transitory predict recoveries much better.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 47
Keywords: financial crisis, forecasting, great recession, unit root
JEL Classification: C51, C53, E37
Date posted: November 17, 2009
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