An Analysis of Recent Mortality Trends in the Italian Population Using Penalised B-Spline Regression

Abstract:     
This paper applies a penalised B-spline (P-spline) regression model to Italian population data. The investigation reveals that cohort effects are present in the Italian population. An analysis of mortality by cause shows how mortality improvements in the mortality rates for circulatory disease and lung cancer have a different impact among generations. The P-spline model may also be used to project future mortality rates: as an application, the projection of future mortality rates in the Italian population obtained using the P-spline model is compared with the improvement factors implicit in the industry-standard table IPS55.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 23

Keywords: Penalised B-spline regression, Mortality, Cohort effects, Cause of death, Mortality projections, Forecasting mortality

JEL Classification: J11,C00, G22

Accepted Paper Series