Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1557227
 
 

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Simulation-Based Excess Return Model for Real Estate Development: A Practical Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Method for Quantitative Risk Management and Project Valuation for Real Estate Development Projects


David J. Gimpelevich


Mid-Market Securities, LLC

June 6, 2010


Abstract:     
The Simulation-Based Excess Return Model (SERM) offers a simple, practical decision-making method for underwriting real estate development projects. It addresses the shortcomings of discounted cash flow modeling by taking into account the probabilistic distribution of outcomes and is based on realistic model of interaction of determining variables.

The Simulation-Based Excess Return Model addresses the limitations of the prevailing methodologies by: 1. Employing a stochastic risk assessment method for the discovery of the range of outcomes. 2. Explicitly addressing the interdependence of input variables. 3. Offering an objective risk premium metric for guidance in decision-making.

This is a revision and expansion of the original working paper as of June 6, 2010.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 22

Keywords: Real Estate Development, Monte Carlo Simulation, Stochastic Risk Management Modeling, Investment Returns Modeling, Project Valuation, Real Estate Underwriting, Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Real Options, Real Estate Pricing, Real Estate Appraisal

JEL Classification: C13, C15, C44, R32, R33, R39

working papers series


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Date posted: February 23, 2010 ; Last revised: October 13, 2010

Suggested Citation

Gimpelevich, David J., Simulation-Based Excess Return Model for Real Estate Development: A Practical Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Method for Quantitative Risk Management and Project Valuation for Real Estate Development Projects (June 6, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1557227 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1557227

Contact Information

David J. Gimpelevich (Contact Author)
Mid-Market Securities, LLC ( email )
San Francisco, CA
United States
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