A Probabilistic Analysis of Guided Tours for Tourists During the Slack Season

Abstract:     
Issues germane to the provision of guided tours for tourists wishing to visit a particular location during the slack season have received scant theoretical attention in the tourism literature. Therefore, we conduct a stochastic analysis of guided tours for tourists during the slack season. We first delineate a general model that accounts for the common features of guided tours to city attractions and to other scenic locations. Second, we determine the long run fraction of demand that is lost to the firm providing the guided tours. Third, we ascertain the long run fraction of time that the guided tour providing firm is unable to satisfy the demand for such tours. Finally, we use the stationary Poisson process and show how our previous two general results might be used to shed practical light on the slack season provision of guided tours to tourists.

Keywords: Guided Tour, Poisson Process, Slack Season, Stochastic Demand, Uncertainty

JEL Classification: L83, D81

Accepted Paper Series