Introducing the Bank of Canada's Projection Model for the Global Economy

Abstract:     
To complement its existing set of tools to analyze and forecast developments in the global economy, the Bank of Canada recently developed a version of the Global Projection Model (GPM) jointly with staff at the International Monetary Fund. The GPM is a highly stylized quarterly projection model for the global economy based on work by Carabenciov et al. (2008). The GPM is specifically designed to meet the need for a better tool to conduct the global projection. The model’s main strength is that it provides an internally consistent projection for the global economy, wherein a shock to any individual block of the model is transmitted to the other economies through several channels. Moreover, it enables staff to better account for changes in view from projection to projection and to analyze the general-equilibrium impact on the global economy of a number of key shocks.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 72

Keywords: Economic models, International topics, Business fluctuations and cycles

JEL Classification: C68, E27, E37, F01

working papers series