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http://ssrn.com/abstract=1573171
 
 

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Measuring Systemic Risk


Viral V. Acharya


New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance

Lasse Heje Pedersen


New York University (NYU); Copenhagen Business School; AQR Capital Management, LLC; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Thomas Philippon


New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Matthew P. Richardson


New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

May 2010

AFA 2011 Denver Meetings Paper

Abstract:     
We present an economic model of systemic risk and show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases in the institution's leverage and its marginal expected shortfall (MES), i.e., its losses in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are "taxed" based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 46

Keywords: systemic risk, bailout, financial regulation, value at risk

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Date posted: March 22, 2010 ; Last revised: August 9, 2010

Suggested Citation

Acharya, Viral V. and Pedersen, Lasse Heje and Philippon, Thomas and Richardson, Matthew P., Measuring Systemic Risk (May 2010). AFA 2011 Denver Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1573171 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1573171

Contact Information

Viral V. Acharya
New York University - Leonard N. Stern School of Business ( email )
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY NY 10012
United States
HOME PAGE: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~sternfin/vacharya/public_html/~vacharya.htm
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance
Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
Lasse Heje Pedersen
New York University (NYU) ( email )
Stern School of Business, Dept. of Finance
44 West 4th St, Suite 9-190
New York, NY 10003-711
United States
HOME PAGE: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~lpederse/
Copenhagen Business School ( email )
Solbjerg Plads 3
Frederiksberg C, DK - 2000
Denmark
AQR Capital Management, LLC ( email )
Greenwich, CT
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Thomas Philippon (Contact Author)
New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )
Stern School of Business
44 West 4th Street
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Matthew P. Richardson
New York University (NYU) - Department of Finance ( email )
44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-190
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
212-998-0349 (Phone)
212-995-4233 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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