The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets: An Empirical Study

Abstract:     
The main focus of this paper is to study empirically the impact of terrorism on the behavior of stock, bond and commodity markets. We consider terrorist events that took place in 25 countries over an 11 year time period and implement our analysis using different methods: an event-study approach, a non-parametric methodology, and a filtered GARCH-EVT approach. In addition, we compare the effect of terrorist attacks on financial markets with the impact of other extreme events such as financial crashes and natural catastrophes. The results of our analysis show that a non-parametric approach is the most appropriate method among the three for analyzing the impact of terrorism on financial markets. We demonstrate the robustness of this method when interest rates, equity markets integration, spillover and contemporaneous effects are controlled. We show how the results of this approach can be used for investors' portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 48

Keywords: Terrorism, Financial Markets, Event Study, Non-Parametric Methodology, Filtered GARCH-EVT Approach, Portfolio Diversification

JEL Classification: G14, G15, G18, G22, G28

working papers series