BRIC Potency: Truth or Trance?
Vrajlal K. Sapovadia
April 3, 2010
It is argued that, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) countries combined economies could surpass world’s richest countries by 2050. Author undertakes veracity of BRIC’s present status with reference to the various projections made till 2050, which are made under certain assumption including maintenance of high growth rate & availability of resources to sustain projected growth. Author argues that deviation in assumptions, difficulty in assessing qualitative factors, undermining inherent threats like population pressure, illiteracy; corruption, social & political unrest may lead to daydreaming. Another set of argument is taking stock of comparative per capita income and human index ranking. All BRIC countries have lost position in ranking of Doing Business in 2010 from 2009. The best position on this ranking is held by China on 89th position while USA is 4th. The worst position is held by India on 133rd. Best per capita income among BRIC is held by Russia with 9622$, i.e. 1/5th of USA’s 47,576$. Lowest is again held by India with 1256$, i.e. 1/48th of USA. In terms of GDP, total combined BRIC stands at 8640,000 million $, little more than half of USA, i.e. 14535,000 million $. Best among BRIC is China’s GDP, which is 1/3rd of USA, lowest is that of India at approximate 1/12th of USA.
Author argues that, to make the dream a reality each BRIC country have to make their house in order and augment natural & human resources by proactive management. It is imperative that their hidden strength & wealth be utilized scientifically, e.g. agriculture & forest land, water reservoirs and most important human capital. Wealth distribution is equally important as wealth creation, and hence growth will only sustain if political system support equitable distribution of wealth among different class of society. The author advocates that population is strength for a country only if quality of populace is appropriately maintained.
Keywords: BRIC, 2050 Projections, Economies
JEL Classification: A00,working papers series
Date posted: April 3, 2010
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