Connections Can Be Toxic: Terrorist Organizational Factors and the Pursuit of CBRN Terrorism

Abstract:     
The prospects of politically violent non-state actors utilizing chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) weapons has captured the imaginations of not only public officials and the news media, but also a sizeable group of scholars who have sought to better define and characterize this apparent threat. Yet little of this work is quantitative in nature and global in scope. This study presents an analysis of the decision to pursue CBRN weapons that leverages data from the Monterey Weapons of Mass Destruction dataset and the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT). Our findings suggest that organizations embedded in alliance structures and based in authoritarian countries with relatively strong connections to a globalized world are more likely to seek to develop or acquire CBRN weapons. Contrary to previous studies, we failed to find a significant relationship between CBRN pursuit and either religious ideology or two measures of organizational capabilities.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 47

working papers series