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Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle?


Luis J. Álvarez


Bank of Spain

Alberto Cabrero


Bank of Spain
July 22, 2010

Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1024

Abstract:     
The aim of this paper is to characterize the cyclical properties of Spanish real and nominal housing related variables. Our three main results are: First, housing appears to lead the business cycle. Second, fluctuation in home prices are positively related to those of residential investment, suggesting the dominant role of demand factors over supply ones. Third, there are interesting asymmetries in cyclical fluctuations: contractions in GDP appear to be briefer than expansions.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 31

Keywords: Housing, business cycles, filtering

JEL Classification: E32, R21, R32

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Date posted: July 23, 2010  

Suggested Citation

Álvarez, Luis J. and Cabrero, Alberto, Does Housing Really Lead the Business Cycle? (July 22, 2010). Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 1024. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1646845 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1646845

Contact Information

Luis J. Álvarez (Contact Author)
Bank of Spain ( email )
Madrid 28014
Spain
Alberto Cabrero
Bank of Spain ( email )
Madrid 28014
Spain
Feedback to SSRN (Beta)


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