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http://ssrn.com/abstract=164933
 
 

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Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes


Steven J. Davis


University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

John Haltiwanger


University of Maryland - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

April 1999

NBER Working Paper No. w7095

Abstract:     
We study the effects of oil price changes and other shocks on the creation and destruction of U.S. manufacturing jobs from 1972 to 1988. We find that oil shocks account for about 20-25 percent of the cyclical variability in employment growth under our identifying assumptions, twice as much as monetary shocks. Employment growth shows a sharply asymmetric response to oil price ups and downs, in contrast to the prediction of standard equilibrium business cycle models. The two-year employment response to an oil price increase rises (in magnitude) with capital intensity, energy intensity, and product durability. Job destruction shows much greater short-run sensitivity to oil and monetary shocks than job creation in every sector with the clear exception of young, small plants. Oil shocks also generate important reallocative effects. For example, we estimate that job reallocation rose by 11 percent of employment over 3-4 years in response to the 1973 oil shock. More than 80 percent of this response reflects greater job reallocation activity within manufacturing.

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Date posted: August 7, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Davis, Steven J. and Haltiwanger, John, Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes (April 1999). NBER Working Paper No. w7095. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=164933

Contact Information

Steven J. Davis (Contact Author)
University of Chicago ( email )
5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States
773-702-7312 (Phone)
773-702-0458 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
John C. Haltiwanger
University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )
College Park, MD 20742
United States
301-405-3504 (Phone)
301-405-3542 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) ( email )
P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany
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