Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1666478
 
 

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The Decline in Male Employment in Australia: A Cohort Analysis


David Black


University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

Yi-Ping Tseng


University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research

Roger Wilkins


University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research


Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 49, Issue 3, pp. 180-199, September 2010

Abstract:     
We use Census data to investigate the sources of the decline in the level of employment of working age males in Australia in recent decades. Alternative measures of the male employment rate are considered before settling on two complementary measures: the full-time employment rate and the full-time equivalent employment rate. The latter measure weights part-time jobs according to the fraction of a full-time job they represent. Models of the determinants of these two employment rates are estimated using data from the Censuses conducted between 1971 and 2001. We construct a pseudo panel by ‘stacking’ the seven Census data sets (Deaton, 1997; Kapteyn, et al., 2005). This facilitates the tracing of birth cohorts over time, in turn making it possible to control for cohort unobserved heterogeneity that may bias cross-sectional estimates of effects of other characteristics, in particular age and year/time period. We produce evidence that a number of factors have contributed to the decline in male employment, including the decline in couple households with dependent children, growth in income taxes and welfare replacement rates and changes in the structure of labour demand away from traditionally male-dominated industries. We also find that, all else (observable) constant, more recent birth cohorts have no lower – and possibly higher – employment rates than earlier birth cohorts.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 20

Accepted Paper Series


Date posted: August 30, 2010  

Suggested Citation

Black, David and Tseng, Yi-Ping and Wilkins, Roger, The Decline in Male Employment in Australia: A Cohort Analysis. Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 49, Issue 3, pp. 180-199, September 2010. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1666478 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2010.00395.x

Contact Information

David Black
University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research ( email )
Level 5, 111 Barry Street
Parkville, Victoria 3010
Australia
Yi-Ping Tseng
University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research ( email )
Level 5, 111 Barry Street
Parkville, Victoria 3010
Australia
Roger Wilkins
University of Melbourne - Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research ( email )
Level 5, 111 Barry Street
Parkville, Victoria 3010
Australia
+613 8344 2092 (Phone)
+613 8344 2111 (Fax)
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