What Determines European Real Exchange Rates?
Victoria University of Wellington - School of Economics & Finance; Australian National University (ANU) - Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)
Michael B. Devereux
University of British Columbia - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
March 27, 2010
CAMA Working Paper No. 17/2010
We study a newly constructed panel data set of relative prices of a large number of consumer goods among 31 European countries. We find that there is a substantial and non-diminishing deviation from PPP at all levels of aggregation, even among eurozone members. However, real exchange rates are very closely tied to relative GDP per capita within Europe, both across countries and over time. This relationship is highly robust at all levels of aggregation. We construct a simple two-sector endowment economy model of real exchange rate determination. Simulating the model using the historical relative GDP per capita for each country, we find that for most (but not all) countries there is a very close fit between the actual and simulated real exchange rate.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 74working papers series
Date posted: September 1, 2010
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