Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1681322
 
 

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The IFO Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP


Klaus Abberger


Ifo Institute for Economic Research

Wolfgang Nierhaus


CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute

September 23, 2010

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3179

Abstract:     
The IFO Business Climate is the most important indicator for the business cycle in Germany. In 1993 the connection between the two components of the business climate – business situation and business expectations – was graphically portrayed by Ifo in a 4-quadrant scheme: the IFO Business Cycle Clock. Today similar monitoring systems are firmly established and are presented by Eurostat, the OECD and others. The German Federal Statistical Office presents the real GDP in a 4-quadrant scheme. In the following, important qualities of the Ifo Business Cycle Clock are shown. The importance of orthogonal functions for the circular correlation is examined.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 31

Keywords: Ifo business climate, growth cycle, circular correlation, linear-circular correlation, temporal disaggregation

JEL Classification: E32, C32, C39, C22

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Date posted: September 24, 2010  

Suggested Citation

Abberger, Klaus and Nierhaus, Wolfgang, The IFO Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP (September 23, 2010). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3179. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1681322

Contact Information

Klaus Abberger (Contact Author)
Ifo Institute for Economic Research ( email )
Poschingerstr. 5
Munich
Germany
Wolfgang Nierhaus
CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) - Ifo Institute ( email )
Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, 01069
Germany
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