Riskdata; CES Univ. Paris 1
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Poly; Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne (CES)
October 12, 2010
Using the metadistribution of possible distributions for a given measure, we define a condition under which it is possible to make a decision based on the observation of random variable, which we call "statistical decidability". We provide a sufficient condition on the metadistribution for the decision to be "statistically decidable" and conjecture that decisions based on a metadistribution with non compact support are always "statistically undecidable". There is the need for a strong undefeasable a priori without which decisions are not statistically justified - an effect that is very significant for decisions affected by small probabilities.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 4working papers series
Date posted: October 14, 2010 ; Last revised: November 16, 2012
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