Determinants of Violent and Property Crimes in England and Wales: A Panel Data Analysis
University of Birmingham - Department of Economics
Fifth Third Bank - Asset Management Division
University of Birmingham - The Birmingham Business School
October 13, 2010
We examine various determinants of property and violent crimes by using police force area level (PFA) data on England and Wales over the period 1992-2008. Our list of potential determinants includes two law enforcement variables, crime-specific detection rate and prison population, and various socio-economic variables such as unemployment rate, real earnings, proportion of young people and Gini Coefficient. By adopting a fixed effect dynamic GMM estimation methodology we attempt to address the potential bias that arises from the presence of time-invariant unobserved characteristics of a PFA and endogeneity of several regeressors. We find that, on average, higher detection rate and prison population leads to lower property and violent crimes. However, socio-economic variables play a limited role in explaining different crime types.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 31
Keywords: GMM, crime, dynamic panel, law enforcement, socio-economic variables
JEL Classification: K42, C23working papers series
Date posted: October 13, 2010 ; Last revised: March 1, 2011
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