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On the Evaluation of Marginal Expected Shortfall


Massimiliano Caporin


University of Padova - Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno"

Paolo Santucci de Magistris


University of Aarhus - CREATES

October 15, 2010


Abstract:     
In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution. In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected Shortfall by means of a second order approximation.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 7

Keywords: Marginal Expected Shortfall, Log-Returns, Systemic Risk

JEL Classification: C18, C58, G10

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Date posted: October 17, 2010  

Suggested Citation

Caporin, Massimiliano and Santucci de Magistris, Paolo, On the Evaluation of Marginal Expected Shortfall (October 15, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1692843 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1692843

Contact Information

Massimiliano Caporin (Contact Author)
University of Padova - Department of Economics and Management "Marco Fanno" ( email )
Via Del Santo 33
Padova, 35123
Italy
+39-049-8274258 (Phone)
+39-049-827-4211 (Fax)
Paolo Santucci de Magistris
University of Aarhus - CREATES ( email )
School of Economics and Management
Building 1322, Bartholins Alle 10
DK-8000 Aarhus C
Denmark
Feedback to SSRN (Beta)


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