Estimating Marginal Returns to Education
Pedro Manuel Carneiro
University College London - Department of Economics; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
James J. Heckman
University of Chicago - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); American Bar Foundation; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)
Yale University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NBER Working Paper No. w16474
This paper estimates the marginal returns to college for individuals induced to enroll in college by different marginal policy changes. The recent instrumental variables literature seeks to estimate this parameter, but in general it does so only under strong assumptions that are tested and found wanting. We show how to utilize economic theory and local instrumental variables estimators to estimate the effect of marginal policy changes. Our empirical analysis shows that returns are higher for individuals with values of unobservables that make them more likely to attend college. We contrast the returns to well-defined marginal policy changes with IV estimates of the return to schooling. Some marginal policy changes inducing students into college produce very low returns.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 34working papers series
Date posted: October 19, 2010
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