Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World

25 Pages Posted: 17 Nov 2010 Last revised: 25 Apr 2012

See all articles by Carlo Carraro

Carlo Carraro

Ca' Foscari University of Venice; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division); IPCC; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels; Green Growth Knowledge Platform

Emanuele Massetti

Georgia Institute of Technology; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change; International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: November 17, 2010

Abstract

We propose a realistic approach to climate policy based on the Copenhagen Agreement to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions. We assess by how much the non-binding, although official, commitments to reduce emissions made in Copenhagen will affect the level of world GHGs emissions in 2020. Our estimates are based on official communications to the UNFCCC, on historic data and on the Business-as-Usual scenario of the WITCH model. We are not interested in estimating the gap between the expected level of emissions and what would be needed to achieve the 2°C target. Nor do we attempt to calculate the 2100 temperature level implied by the Copenhagen pledges. We believe these two exercises are subject to high uncertainty and would not improve the current state of negotiations. Rather, we take stock of the present politically achievable level of commitment and suggest an effective way to push forward the climate policy agenda. The focus is on what can be done rather than on what should be done. To this end, we estimate the potential of the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Agreement to sponsor mitigation effort in Non-Annex I countries. Using scenarios produced with the WITCH model, we show that lower commitment on domestic abatement measures can be compensated by devoting roughly 50% of the Copenhagen financial provisions in 2020 to mitigation in Non-Annex I countries. The policy implications of our results will be discussed.

Keywords: Kyoto Protocol, International Climate Agreements, Climate Policy, Clean Development Mechanism

JEL Classification: F5, Q01, Q54, Q58

Suggested Citation

Carraro, Carlo and Massetti, Emanuele, Beyond Copenhagen: A Realistic Climate Policy in a Fragmented World (November 17, 2010). FEEM Working Paper No. 136.2010, CMCC Research Paper No. 104, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1710487 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1710487

Carlo Carraro

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Cannaregio 873
Venice, 30121
Italy
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HOME PAGE: http://www.carlocarraro.org/

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (Climate Policy Division) ( email )

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Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

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Germany

Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels

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Green Growth Knowledge Platform ( email )

International Environment House
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Switzerland

HOME PAGE: http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/

Emanuele Massetti (Contact Author)

Georgia Institute of Technology ( email )

685 Cherry St.
Atlanta, GA 30332-0345
United States

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

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Washington, DC 20431
United States

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