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http://ssrn.com/abstract=171435
 
 

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Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment


Jaap H. Abbring


Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research; Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER); Tinbergen Institute; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Gerard J. Van den Berg


VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Tinbergen Institute

Jan C. Van Ours


Tilburg University - Department of Economics; University of Melbourne - Department of Economics

July 16, 1999

Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. 97-050/3

Abstract:     
In this paper, we study U.S. unemployment dynamics using grouped unemployment data from the Current Population Survey over the period 1968-1992. We estimate a model that traces variation in these unemployment data, both over time and between demographic groups, back to the underlying variation in the inflow and the outflow. In turn, we model the outflow as a transition process in which we allow the exit probabilities to depend on calendar time, duration, and demographic group. We particularly focus on the measurement and economic interpretation of the interaction of duration dependence of exit probabilities and the business cycle.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 53

JEL Classification: C41, E32, J64

working papers series


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Date posted: December 16, 1999  

Suggested Citation

Abbring, Jaap H. and van den Berg, Gerard J. and van Ours, Jan C., Business Cycles and Compositional Variation in U.S. Unemployment (July 16, 1999). Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. 97-050/3. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=171435 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.171435

Contact Information

Jaap H. Abbring (Contact Author)
Tilburg University - Department of Econometrics & Operations Research ( email )
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
HOME PAGE: http://center.uvt.nl/staff/abbring/
Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER) ( email )
P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
HOME PAGE: http://center.uvt.nl/staff/abbring/
Tinbergen Institute
Roetersstraat 31
Amsterdam, 1018WB
Netherlands
HOME PAGE: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany
Gerard J. Van den Berg
VU University Amsterdam - Department of Economics ( email )
De Boelelaan 1105
1081 HV Amsterdam
Netherlands
+31 20 444 6132 (Phone)
+32 20 444 6020 (Fax)
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)
P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany
Tinbergen Institute
Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands
Jan C. Van Ours
Tilburg University - Department of Economics ( email )
P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2880 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3042 (Fax)
University of Melbourne - Department of Economics ( email )
Melbourne, 3010
Australia
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Citations:  10
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