Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys?

Graefe, Andreas

Abstract

Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys?

Andreas Graefe

Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research

Fall 2010

FORESIGHT: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Forthcoming

Abstract:
In this new installment of the prediction markets column, Andreas Graefe summarizes the evidence he has uncovered on whether the design and implementation of a prediction market is worth the extra cost and effort involved, compared to a simple survey of the judgment of key individuals.

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Accepted Paper Series

Date posted: November 26, 2010

Suggested Citation

Graefe, Andreas, Are Prediction Markets More Accurate than Simple Surveys? (Fall 2010). FORESIGHT: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1714813

Contact Information

Andreas Graefe (Contact Author)

Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich - Department of Communication Science and Media Research ( email )

Ludwigstrasse 28 RG/4
Munich, Munich 80539
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.andreas-graefe.org