Price Volatility and Rational Expectations in a Sectoral Framework Commodity Model: A Multivariate GARCH Approach
Anthony N. Rezitis
University of Western Greece - Department of Business Administration of Food and Agricultural Products
Konstantinos S. Stavropoulos
affiliation not provided to SSRN
December 2, 2010
Agricultural Economics, Forthcoming
This paper explores supply response models in a rational expectations framework with endogenous risk by using a multivariate GARCH model with Cholesky decomposition. This approach allows the incorporation of price volatility as a risk factor into the supply response of a primary commodity sector that is composed of several markets of homogenous products. The model is applied to the Greek meat sector, which is composed of four major meat categories, i.e. beef, lamb, pork and broiler, and thus the model for the entire market includes supply and demand equations for all the four meat markets, which are estimated simultaneously. The empirical results confirm that price volatility is a significant risk factor in Greek meat production and also provide useful implications about the cost factors of production. Furthermore, the empirical findings show that the last reform of the Common Agricultural Policy seems to have had a negative effect on beef and lamb production in Greece.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 30
Keywords: supply response, price volatility, CAP, MGARCH
JEL Classification: Q11, C51, D2Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: December 4, 2010 ; Last revised: December 21, 2010
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