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Forecasting and Evaluating Network GrowthDavid Matthew LevinsonUniversity of Minnesota - Twin Cities Feng XieUniversity of Minnesota - Twin Cities Norah Montes de Ocaaffiliation not provided to SSRN October 1, 2009 First International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure in Banff, Canada, August 2-3, 2006 Abstract: This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules. The main scenarios compare "stated decision rules", processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with "revealed decision rules", weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. We find that given the relatively small amount of funds available for network growth in a mature system, alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations and affect the trip time and spatial accessibility in a significantly different way.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 24 Keywords: network, decision, forecasting, budget JEL Classification: R41, R42 Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: January 5, 2011 ; Last revised: January 22, 2011Suggested CitationContact Information
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