Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1734920
 
 

References (22)



 
 

Citations (4)



 


 



Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth


David Matthew Levinson


University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Feng Xie


University of Minnesota - Twin Cities

Norah Montes de Oca


affiliation not provided to SSRN

October 1, 2009

First International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure in Banff, Canada, August 2-3, 2006

Abstract:     
This research assesses the implications of existing trends on future network investment, comparing alternative scenarios concerning budgets and investment rules. The main scenarios compare "stated decision rules", processes encoded in flowcharts and weights developed from official documents or by discussion with agency staff, with "revealed decision rules", weights estimated statistically based on observed historical behavior. This research specifies the processes necessary to run the network forecasting models with various decision rules. We find that given the relatively small amount of funds available for network growth in a mature system, alternative decision rules make only small differences in overall system performance, though they direct investments to very different locations and affect the trip time and spatial accessibility in a significantly different way.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 24

Keywords: network, decision, forecasting, budget

JEL Classification: R41, R42

Accepted Paper Series





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Date posted: January 5, 2011 ; Last revised: January 22, 2011

Suggested Citation

Levinson, David Matthew and Xie, Feng and Montes de Oca, Norah, Forecasting and Evaluating Network Growth (October 1, 2009). First International Conference on Funding Transport Infrastructure in Banff, Canada, August 2-3, 2006. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1734920

Contact Information

David Matthew Levinson (Contact Author)
University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )
420 Delaware St. SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States
Feng Xie
University of Minnesota - Twin Cities ( email )
420 Delaware St. SE
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States
Norah Montes de Oca
affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )
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References:  22
Citations:  4

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