What was the Long Term Growth in the Chilean Economy? A Formal Answer for an Old Question
Byron A. Idrovo
Cámara Chilena de la Construcción
December 30, 2010
Cuadernos de Economía, Vol. 29, No. 53, 2010
The objective of the present study is to estimate the economy growth rate in the context of full use of the productive resources. Time series univariete models, including a deterministic tendency (with mean breaks), and a space-state model that considers a stochastic tendency and a cyclic component, estimated by Kalman’s filter were used. The cyclic component is calculated with and without regime changes (Markov-switching models), according to Friedman’s idea-plucking model. The results indicate that the Chilean economy potential growth rate would be greater than 4% annually, accompanied by economic asymmetric cycles.
Note: Downloadable document is in Spanish.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 25
Keywords: economy, cycles, growth tendency, Kalman’s filter, Chile
JEL Classification: C22, E32, N36, O54Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: January 20, 2011
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