References (19)


Citations (1)



Predicting Extreme Returns and Portfolio Management Implications

Kevin Krieger

University of West Florida

Greg Stevenson

University of Tulsa

Andy Fodor

Ohio University

Nathan Mauck

University of Missouri - Kansas City

May 14, 2012

We consider which readily observable characteristics of individual stocks (e.g., option implied volatility, accounting data, analyst data) may be used to forecast subsequent extreme price movements. We are the first to explicitly consider the predictive influence of option implied volatility in such a framework, which we unsurprisingly find to be an important indicator of future extreme price movements. However, after controlling for implied volatility levels, other factors, particularly firm age and size, still have additional predictive power of extreme future returns. Furthermore, excluding predicted extreme return stocks leads to a portfolio that has lower risk (standard deviation of returns) without sacrificing performance.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 29

Keywords: predicting extreme returns

JEL Classification: G10, G14, G17

Open PDF in Browser Download This Paper

Date posted: January 20, 2011 ; Last revised: May 15, 2012

Suggested Citation

Krieger, Kevin and Stevenson, Greg and Fodor, Andy and Mauck, Nathan, Predicting Extreme Returns and Portfolio Management Implications (May 14, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1743226 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1743226

Contact Information

Kevin Krieger (Contact Author)
University of West Florida ( email )
Building 76, Room 226
Department of Accounting and Finance, UWF
Pensacola, FL 32514
United States
Greg Stevenson
University of Tulsa ( email )
600 South College
Tulsa, OK 74104
United States
Andy Fodor
Ohio University ( email )
234 Copeland
Athens, OH 45701
United States
740.593.0514 (Phone)
Nathan Mauck
University of Missouri - Kansas City ( email )
5100 Rockhill Road
Kansas City, MO 64110-2499
United States
Feedback to SSRN

Paper statistics
Abstract Views: 2,121
Downloads: 437
Download Rank: 41,991
References:  19
Citations:  1

© 2015 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  FAQ   Terms of Use   Privacy Policy   Copyright   Contact Us
This page was processed by apollo7 in 0.406 seconds