Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1746864
 
 

References (9)



 


 



Past Performance is Indicative of Future Beliefs


Philip Maymin


NYU Poly - Department of Finance and Risk Engineering

Gregg S. Fisher


Gerstein Fisher

April 11, 2011

Risk and Decision Analysis, Forthcoming
NYU Poly Research Paper

Abstract:     
The performance of the average investor in an asset class lags the average performance of the asset class itself by an average of one percent per year over the past fifteen years, based on net investor mutual fund cash flows. We present a model in which a representative behavioral investor believes next year’s returns will exactly match last year’s returns and show that this leads to price adjustments on what would otherwise be random walk securities that effectively lower the future return of high performers and raise the future return of poor performers. The average predicted behavioral lag indeed matches the observed lag when asset returns are normally distributed with a mean and standard deviation equivalent to historical fifteen year averages of six percent and eighteen percent, respectively, and when the representative investor increases his allocation by 25 percent more than the return itself, a prediction for which we document empirical support. In other words, investors chase returns and in doing so create the conditions of their own demise.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 12

Keywords: behavioral, trading, mutual funds, momentum, investor returns

JEL Classification: G11, G14

Accepted Paper Series


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Date posted: January 26, 2011 ; Last revised: April 29, 2011

Suggested Citation

Maymin, Philip and Fisher, Gregg S., Past Performance is Indicative of Future Beliefs (April 11, 2011). Risk and Decision Analysis, Forthcoming; NYU Poly Research Paper. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1746864

Contact Information

Philip Maymin (Contact Author)
NYU Poly - Department of Finance and Risk Engineering ( email )
Brooklyn, NY 11201
United States

Gregg S. Fisher
Gerstein Fisher ( email )
565 Fifth Avenue
27th Floor
New York, NY 10017
United States
212-968-0707 (Phone)
HOME PAGE: http://www.gersteinfisher.com
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