|
|
|
|
||||
|
||||
The Baltic Dry Index as a Predictor of Global Stock Returns, Commodity Returns, and Global Economic ActivityGurdip BakshiUniversity of Maryland - Robert H. Smith School of Business George PanayotovGeorgetown University - Robert Emmett McDonough School of Business Georgios SkoulakisUniversity of Maryland - Department of Finance October 1, 2010 Abstract: The goal of this paper is to show that the growth rate of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has predictive ability for a range of stock markets, which is demonstrated through in-sample tests and out-of-sample statistics. The documented stock return predictability is also of economic significance, as seen by examining the certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios of portfolio strategies that exploit the BDI growth rate. In addition, the BDI growth rate predicts the returns of commodity indexes, and we find some evidence for joint predictability of stock and commodity returns in a system of predictive regressions. Finally, the BDI growth rate predicts the growth in global economic activity, establishing further BDI’s role in revealing a link between the real and financial sectors.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 52 Keywords: Baltic Dry Index, global stock markets, commodity returns, global real economic activity JEL Classification: C23, C53, G11, G12, G13, C5, D24, D34 working papers seriesDate posted: January 25, 2011 ; Last revised: February 29, 2012Suggested CitationContact Information
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
© 2013 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
FAQ
Terms of Use
Privacy Policy
Copyright
This page was processed by apollo6 in 1.016 seconds
