Comments on 'Getting Scarred and Winning Lotteries: Effects of Exemplar Cuing and Statistical Format on Imagining Low-Probability Events,' by Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (2008)
Jonathan J. Koehler
Northwestern University - School of Law
Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca - Center for Interdisciplinary Studies in Economics, Psychology & Social Sciences (CISEPS)
February 9, 2009
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 22, p. 523, 2009
Northwestern Public Law Research Paper No. 11-22
Newell, Mitchell, and Hayes (NMH) conduct three experiments designed to test whether exemplar cuing (EC) theory or a statistical format theory provides a more accurate account for how people make judgments about low-probability events. They report finding support for the statistical format theory and little or no support for EC. However, NMH misstate the requirements for the production of exemplars in EC theory. As a result, they confuse non-exemplar conditions with exemplar conditions in their experiments, and find results that are virtually irrelevant to EC theory.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 6
Keywords: exemplar cuing, low-probability events, imaginability, exemplars
JEL Classification: K10, K19, K30, K39Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: February 7, 2011
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