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Europe Agreements and Trade Balance: Evidence from Four New EU MembersGuglielmo Maria CaporaleBrunel University - Centre for Empirical Finance Christophe RaultUniversity of Orleans; Université d'Évry - Centre D'Etudes des Politiques Economiques et de L'Emploi (EPEE); Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative (EUREQUA); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research) Robert SovaAcademy of Economic Studies; Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Centre Maison des Sciences Economiques Anamaria SovaBucharest Academy of Economic Studies; CES Sorbonne University February 14, 2011 CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3340 Abstract: This paper analyses the trade balance effects of Europe agreements (EA) between the EU-15 and four new EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC-4) using both static and dynamic panel data approaches. Specifically, the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM, Blundell and Bond, 1998) and recently developed econometric methods such as the Correlated Common Estimation Pooled - Hausman-Taylor (CCEPHT, Serlenga and Shin, 2007) are applied to analyse the effects of the agreement variable. Our estimation results indicate a positive and significant impact of EA on trade flows. However, there is an asymmetric impact of the agreement variable on the trade balance, exports and imports being affected in different ways, which results in a trade balance deficit in the CEEC-4.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 34 Keywords: regionalisation, trade flows, trade balance, panel data methods JEL Classification: E61, F13, F15, C25 working papers seriesDate posted: February 14, 2011Suggested CitationContact Information
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